If you have an interest in Money and economics, politics and current affairs, and you have never heard of socionomics before then this will get your ticker going on how you think things work. I hope you have got your school hat on. I’m going to teach you about a new and very interesting new subject that can help predict the future and shed light on what is happening around you.
So to kick off my new found love of blogging, I wish to start with a little bit about a subject that i have been studying for the last few years.
You may have seen the word in my description and wondered what it means. The subject is called socionomics.
How i came about it.
I was first introduced to this subject back in 2005 when i observed property prices around the world going sky high. I myself was a first time buyer contemplating my timing into the property market and when i saw the price of houses I figured that something must be wrong. I remember saying to myself that only 10 years earlier the prices were far far cheaper than they were in 2005.
I went on the internet to start looking for anybody who could shed some light on the situation and came across a book called Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter. The book made a very interesting read and i would recommend it to anyone who is interested in preserving wealth. Also as a bonus, it opened my world up to a new subject called socionomics. The term socionomics is actually coined by Robert Prechter and is such a young subject that computer dictionarys still do not pick it up as a word.
Knowing what is coming next is such a passion of mine and socionomics is the most fitting subject on having an understanding of how we work as a human race. I really like this subject. It is so fresh and groundbreaking that the word is not even in the dictionary yet!
So what is it.
Socionomy takes a cutting edge scientific view of the worlds people and takes natural observed phenomenon to explain social mood and what effect it has on society. Why is this important you may ask? Well, its findings have gone in the face of many things that we have come to hold as the way the world works and why what we think causes an effect actually isn’t the cause at all!
Ok so you are talking in riddles now please explain it more clearly.
Ok, humans are evolved from natures natural laws. I may blog about some of these in future blogs but for now you must take my word for it that science has made some terrific breakthroughs in the last few decades.
The multiple studies around the world about subjects such as fractals, fibonacci sequence and evolution to the studies of the stock market, fashion or even current number one music chart hits or number one box office movies. These all correlate down to one subject. That is the subject of socionomics.
Ok i’m waffling, now lets try to get a grip on what it is:
I like to play the stock market from time to time. Lets take a view of this from the stock market as this is where the subject tells us ‘it is like a barometer of social mood’
If you have ever taken an interest or tried to play the stock market you may have come to the conclusion that the news moves the markets. So for instance, if the government announces that the country is in a recession, the stock market should go down due to the negative news. Yet time and time again when you try to use the news to time betting the stock market to go up, or down as a matter of fact, you may be disappointed that the outcome that you thought was going to happen actually didn’t. ‘Oh perhaps some other news must have made the stock market move upwards’ you may say to yourself. Maybe a report on futre growth prospects was the reason it went up. Or jobs are up, maybe that was it?
Well you are close that something else moved the market upwards but i can tell you that according to socionomy, it wasn’t the news that was the cause. In actuality socionomy teaches us quite the opposite.
In actuality, the stock market moved first, then the news came out to try and quantify or explain the move. This is broadly speaking about the current major trend of a market. (There may be small movements that look extremely linked to the news but this will have no overall bearing effect on the current market mood and direction)
You see, this subject maybe counter intuitive to everything you may believe about action and reaction. What socionomics does, is flip it on its head so that what you thought was the cause (ie the news in this case) is actually the effect of the stock market moves or as I like to now see it, the current social mood. (See Ebb and flow further down)
So what is social mood?
Seing as though we are animalistic in our nature evolving from millions of years of evolution (read any good science book on this if unsure) we have some in built instincts that are very overpowering. These instincts are the same mechanisms that make your adrenaline pump during perceived fight or flight situations or attract you to a beautiful woman or handsome man. They are in built into the early part of our brain. Our primordial brain so to speak. And if you look at the evolutionary tree, only later does our brain get bigger and form the outer part of our minds. This is where we find our ability to reason.
So being human is to be in constant battle between reason and instinct.
What has been observed through studies is that our primordial part of our brain is more overpowering than our reasoning. It is based closer to the spine and hence can somehow overrule our reasoning many times in situations in our life.
Stop and think about it a second. How many times have you known that something is not good for you yet you go ahead and do it anyway?
Throughout humanities evolution we seem to have picked up a natural herding instinct. Sheep are the most commonly known animals observed herding although wolves hunting in packs or birds flocking in flight together can also be classed as herding. This is most likely to do with ancient safety in numbers being a mechanism for survival.
Let me give you an example of human herding: Somebody tells you the exact location, for sure, that there is pot of gold in the woods near the field that you are standing in and if you retrieve it in the next 10 minutes, it is yours. You quickly make a dash to get the gold and 50 yards before you enter you see dozens of people running out of the woods towards you in a panicked state, somebody screams ‘Bear’, at you, as they run past. Now, Do you continue running into the woods or do you turn around and run away from the bear that these people are running from. You haven’t seen the bear with your own eyes but are quite convinced by the panic in the peoples faces.
You have no weapons and don’t fancy your chances against an angry bear for no amount of gold. Most likely you will follow your strongly impulsive instincts and you will turn and run with the crowd. This is called herding.
We humans use the humans around us to help guide us for survival. Its in our nature and socionomics views this as the herding impulse or principal.
The ebb and flow of social mood:
So you now hopefully agree that we humans still herd just like the animals we view in the animal world. Why is this so important. Well, our mood, it seems, is quite contagious in that we pick it up from other humans. BEing with somebody cheery can make you feel, well, quite cheery. Or watching someone yawn can very often cause you to yawn sometimes almost in unison.
This mood spreads through society in waves only it is not coming from any particular source. There is no observable leader. Just one person passing on his mood to the next person. Just as there is no leader in a herd of sheep, there is no dictator/leader in the price of a stock on the stock exchange. Only peoples opinion of that stock is what counts and we get our cues from the mood of the other people playing that stock.
So whats important about the stock exchange and its relationship to socionomy
Well, the stock market indices are a good indicator of social mood as they are always available to view as a single price that is moving up or down. There are many other ways to measure current social mood but i find the worlds stock market indexes a very good indicator of current social mood and where it is heading.
So where are we heading?
There worlds mood is entering a phase of negative and fearful state at present that could last well into 2016 and possibly beyond. Most people will become aware of this phenomenon in at or around the year 2012. Please don’t despair. This is a natural fractal like movement that will pass just as it has in the past. So the prediction in this blog tells you that we are headed for darker times.
Just being aware of what is to come will most likely ease the worry of not understanding or knowing what is happening to the world when we are in the midst of crisis.
Now that you have read and digested this blog. You will understand about my angle on how i look at the world, it helps me tremendously in understanding what is happening to us and why even governments and big businesses such as the banks can makes such huge errors in judgement. After all, it is part of being human.
I have some personal blogs about the state of the economy and the subject of money that i will copy and paste into this new wordpress blog in due course.
If this article interested you then i urge you to read up more on socionomics by visiting http://www.socionomics.com